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The Vicious Circle of Xenophobia: Immigration and Right-Wing Populism  

This recent Working paper highlights the link between low-skill immigration that promotes right-wing populism, which in turn generates adverse skill-selection of immigrants. This creates a vicious circle between negative skill-selection of immigrants and right-wing populism. Structural trends and cyclical shocks such as internet expansion or demographic pressure from poor countries tend to make the vicious circle more likely.


 
Le blog du CEPII
May 5, 2025  
Bilateral Vulnerability to Imports Is Higher in the United States than in Europe
Kevin Lefebvre, Pauline Wibaux
The tariff strategy implemented since Donald Trump's inauguration has drawn attention to the extent of the U.S. economy's dependence on imports. The European Union (EU) ranks second among the suppliers on which the United States relies the most.
Trade & Globalization
Competitiveness & Growth
Emerging Countries
Environment & Natural Resources
Europe
Migrations
Money & Finance
Economic Policy


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Analysis and debates


Carbon Bias of Tariffs: Are Fossil fuels the Culprits?


This Working Paper revisits the existence of a carbon bias in trade policies, where emissions-intensive sectors receive lower trade protection than cleaner sectors. Using a stylized general equilibrium model that accounts for greenhouse gas emissions, we confirm the presence of a carbon bias but find it to be significantly smaller than previously estimated. Our analysis reveals that this bias is primarily driven by low tariffs on fossil fuels, particularly crude oil. Incorporating the finite nature of fossil fuel resources into the model reduces the responsiveness of fossil fuel production to tariff changes, effectively neutralizing the carbon bias. Furthermore, when accounting for domestic consumption taxes on fossil fuels in non-producing countries –which act as de facto tariffs– the bias shifts toward a pro-environmental stance. These findings underscore the importance of integrating energy markets' specificities and domestic distortions into trade models to better account for the impact of trade policies on the environment. Continue reading >>

Publications
L’approvisionnement russe de produits duals face aux sanctions

Business Travel, a Driver of International Trade Hindered by Immigration Restrictions

Au-delà du coût de l’énergie : la demande, ce facteur oublié de la compétitivité

Carbon Bias of Tariffs: Are Fossil fuels the Culprits?

Does Immigration Affect Native Wages? A Meta-Analysis

The Vicious Circle of Xenophobia: Immigration and Right-Wing Populism

Quelle stratégie pour l’Union européenne face au protectionnisme américain ?

Working Around Sanctions. What Cost to Russia?

Trump 2.0 Tariffs: What Cost for the World Economy?

Health Products in International Trade: a Full-Fledged Industry Grouping

CEPII Region Profiles: indicators, databases and classifications

CEPII Country Profiles: indicators, databases and classifications


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