CEPII - Accueil

American Protectionism: The Stakes of July 9, 2025

Following the inauguration of the new Trump administration on January 20, 2025, a return to traditional protectionism was expected, but few foresaw its intensity. On April 2, the “Liberation Day,” President Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs” - hikes of 11 to 50 percentage points against 57 trading partners accused of exploiting the U.S. Yet, just a week later, on April 9, he reversed course, declaring a 90-day pause and replacing the plan with a universal 10-point tariff surcharge. Continue reading >>

January 13, 2026

Conceptualizing Violence in Space as a Flow
Mathieu Couttenier, Julian Marcoux, Thierry Mayer, Mathias Thoening
Many analyses of armed conflicts fail to take into account the spatial origins of combatant groups, as well as the competition among them on predation markets that underlies the diffusion of violence.

December 18, 2025

Immigrant Employment in Intermediate Sectors Enhances Downstream Export Performance
Amandine Aubry, Anthony Edo
A sector’s export performance depends not only on the immigrant labour it employs directly, but also on immigrant workers employed in upstream sectors.

November 28, 2025

Low-Value Packages: An Illustration of China’s Export Reorientation Toward the EU
Charlotte Emlinger, Kevin Lefebvre, Vincent Vicard
In response to the sharp increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing is redirecting part of its export flows toward new markets. For certain products, the European Union (EU) has emerged as a preferred destination.

November 14, 2025

Dynamics of World Trade: A Question of Prices?
Pierre Cotterlaz, Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz Ünal
Behind the expansion or slowdown of world trade in value terms lies a key factor: price movements, which are often sharply contrasted across categories of traded goods.

Trade & Globalization

Competitiveness & Growth

Emerging Countries

Environment & Natural Resources

LE Graphique – THE Chart

Share of Immigrants in France: A Level and an Increase Lower Than in the Main European Host Countries

In 2024, immigrants account for nearly 14% of the French population, a level lower than that observed in the other main host countries of the European Union. Read more on the blog

MIRAGE Model Documentation Version 2.0

MIRAGE is a multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium model designed by the CEPII for economic policy analysis, particularly focusing on trade and environmental policies. The model features advanced trade modeling capabilities with detailed treatment of trade costs, Armington specifications, and analysis of trade barriers through the MAcMap-HS6 database. Enhanced energy sector representation includes detailed electricity generation modeling with renewable energy integration considering base-load and peak-load, capital-energy bundles, and greenhouse gas emissions accounting with carbon market mechanisms. The sequential dynamic framework enables long-term economic projections by combining total factor productivity calibration with macroeconomic forecasts from the MaGE model for consistent policy scenario analysis. Continue reading >>

Analysis and debates

The Fragmentation Paradox: De-risking Trade and Global Safety

This CEPII Working Paper develops a quantitative model of trade and conflicts and apply it to the US-China relationship. The authors argue that all welfare-relevant geoeconomic factors, such as the realized costs of war, the concessions to prevent it, and the probability of escalation, depend on the opportunity cost of war, itself shaped by observed trade flows. The growing US dependence to Chinese products over the past thirty years has increased the cost of geopolitical disputes with China for the US. While decoupling from China could offer geopolitical benefits, the paper highlights a fundamental security dilemma: decoupling can paradoxically raise the risk of escalation by weakening incentives for restraint. Continue reading >>

Publications

Pour stabiliser ses ventes à l’international, les diversifier n’est pas toujours la solution

La rareté : un défi pour évaluer les effets des accords commerciaux

How International Trade Shaped France’s Carbon Footprint

MIRAGE Model Documentation Version 2.0

The Fragmentation Paradox: De-risking Trade and Global Safety

Monetary Policy and Life Insurance Profitability: Bancassurance’s Edge in a Low-Yield World

What Strategy Should the European Union Adopt in the Face of US Protectionism?

Working Around Sanctions. What Cost to Russia?

Trump 2.0 Tariffs: What Cost for the World Economy?

Health Products in International Trade: a Full-Fledged Industry Grouping

CEPII Region Profiles: indicators, databases and classifications

CEPII Country Profiles: indicators, databases and classifications

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Coming Events

Le CEPII, partenaire de la Cité de l'économie. Table ronde "Qui gouverne le climat ?"
February 7, 2026

Le CEPII, partenaire de la Cité de l'économie. Table ronde "Cinéma, mode, jeux vidéo : la culture, super-pouvoir mondial"
March 14, 2026

Quel avenir pour l’Europe dans un monde de rapports de force ?
Le CEPII au Printemps de l'économie 2026
March 17, 2026

7th EMME Workshop Emerging Market MacroEconomics
March 20, 2026

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Past Events

Les stablecoins, le dollar et l’euro
January 29, 2026

L'impact de l'immigration sur le marché du travail
January 27, 2026

Le CEPII, partenaire de la Cité de l'économie. Table ronde "Migrations internationales : rien que la vérité !"
January 10, 2026

Séminaire de recherche du CEPII : "When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada's 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Businesses"
December 18, 2025

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