This CEPII Working Paper develops a quantitative model of trade and conflicts and apply it to the US-China relationship. The authors argue that all welfare-relevant geoeconomic factors, such as the realized costs of war, the concessions to prevent it, and the probability of escalation, depend on the opportunity cost of war, itself shaped by observed trade flows. The growing US dependence to Chinese products over the past thirty years has increased the cost of geopolitical disputes with China for the US. While decoupling from China could offer geopolitical benefits, the paper highlights a fundamental security dilemma: decoupling can paradoxically raise the risk of escalation by weakening incentives for restraint. Thierry Mayer, Isabelle Méjean, Mathias Thoenig

MIRAGE is a multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium model designed by the CEPII for economic policy analysis, particularly focusing on trade and environmental policies. The model features advanced trade modeling capabilities with detailed treatment of trade costs, Armington specifications, and analysis of trade barriers through the MAcMap-HS6 database. Enhanced energy sector representation includes detailed electricity generation modeling with renewable energy integration considering base-load and peak-load, capital-energy bundles, and greenhouse gas emissions accounting with carbon market mechanisms. The sequential dynamic framework enables long-term economic projections by combining total factor productivity calibration with macroeconomic forecasts from the MaGE model for consistent policy scenario analysis. Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Christophe Gouel, Houssein Guimbard, Cristina Mitaritonna, Balthazar de Vaulchier, Yu Zheng

International Economics is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to the publication of research in the area of applied international economics. The journal especially welcomes empirical contributions that include, but are not limited to, topics in international trade, commercial policy, open economy macroeconomics, international finance, exchange rates, financial and monetary policies, economic development, migration and factor movements. The December 2025 issue is available online, and the March 2026 issue is in progress but contain articles that are final and fully citable.