@TechReport{CEPII:2009-33,
author={Virginie Coudert and Cyril Pouvelle},
title={Assessing the Sustainability of Credit Growth: the Case of Central and Eastern European Countries },
year=2009,
month=December,
institution={CEPII},
type={Working Papers},
url={https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/fr/publications/wp/abstract.asp?NoDoc=1843},
number={2009-33},
abstract={Strong credit growth rates in transition countries may result from a normal catching-up process in a framework of financial development. However, as elsewhere, they can also pertain to a “credit boom”, paving the way to future “credit crunches”. We try to disentangle these two types of situation for the central and eastern European countries (CEECs) by applying a number of methods. First, we consider the gap between current credit and its longterm trend and we find some signs of credit booms, in several CEECs in 2005-2007. Second, we assess the “normal” growth of credit with regard to fundamentals through econometric estimations. Credit growth is also shown to have been excessive in several countries just before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.},
keywords={CREDIT BOOM ; TRANSITION ; FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT}
}