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N° 2008-04 |
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| April 2008 |
An Impact Study of the EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs)
in the Six ACP Regions |
Lionel Fontagné
David
Laborde
Cristina Mitaritonna |
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| This study intends to present a very detailed and dynamic analysis of the trade-related aspects
of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) negotiations. We use a dynamic partial
equilibrium model – focusing on the demand side – at the HS6 level (covering 5,113 HS6
products). Two alternative lists of sensitive products are constructed, one giving priority to
the agricultural sectors, the other focusing on tariff revenue preservation. In order to be WTO
compatible, EPAs must translate into 90 percent of bilateral trade fully liberalised. We use
this criterion to simulate EPAs for each negotiating regional block. ACP exports to the EU
are forecast to be 10 percent higher with the EPAs than under the GSP/EBA option. On average
ACP countries are forecast to lose 70 percent of tariff revenues on EU imports in the
long run. Yet imports from other regions of the world will continue to provide tariff revenues.
Thus when tariff revenue losses are computed on total ACP imports, losses are limited to 26
percent on average in the long run and even 19 percent when the product lists are optimised.
The final impact on the economy depends on the importance of tariffs in government revenue
and on potential compensatory effects. However this long term and less visible effect will
mainly depend on the capacity of each ACP country to reorganise its fiscal base. |
Non-technical summary |
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Résumé
non-technique
en français |
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| Full text |
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| Preferential Trade Agreements; Africa; EPAs; Simulations |
Keywords |
| F13; F15; O55 |
JEL classification |
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